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Rotorua Future Insights Process 2005-25 

"Drivers of Change 2005-2025"

This process has been utilised by the board to assist them in understanding the nine future global drivers of change that are relevant to the Rotorua economy.

  1. The unique role of Maori in Rotorua (Local Driver)

    The process enabled the board to take the high number of board strategies and actions continued within the original BrightEconomy Strategy and create focus around some of the truly globally sustainable economic development opportunities for Rotorua. These opportunities are focussed on building on our global and national comparative advantages and looking at what we can do to create an economic development environment that will see these tuned into global competitive advantages.

Future Insights 2005-25
Framework for Discussion and Thinking

The future insights process utilises an economic environmental scan of the external influences and the major drivers of change impacting on the Rotorua economy in a local, national and international context over the next 10 – 15 years.
This results in both a screening and prioritisation tool to assist with the assessment of implementation actions as well as producing a board that has a well balanced, creditable and very considered view of the future for Rotorua, ultimate resulting in the ability to lead in securing sustainable partnerships for implementation of the strategy

The board was lead through this process by Professor Wayne Cartwright of Auckland University and the base information utilised included in the overview has resulted from hundreds of hours of work in 2000/01, first within Forest Research (SCION), then extended further to versions of the work being used by :
– Forest Research (Scion)
– Crop and Food Research
– Growth and Innovation Advisory Board
– Ministry of Defense
– Tertiary Education Commission
– Lockwood Homes

Three step process:

Step 1: Assessment of drivers of global change, using this model:

Step 2: Focusing the drivers into global scenarios
- Globalisation and Security
- Conflicted Word
- Sustainability Emerges

Step 3: Taking the key elements of these scenarios and using them to ‘drill down’ to find the change drivers that are relevant to particular sectors (such as Rotorua District)

The following presentations can be downloaded to give you more of the understanding of the process>>> Drivers of Change Click to Download Reader by Prof. Wayne Cartwright

 

 

 

 

The Nine Relevant Rotorua Drivers of Change:

1.Energy Prices & Supply

    • The prices of hydrocarbons (derivatives of mineral oil, coal and natural gas) and the costs of using them are set to trend upwards substantially into the forseeable future, but will vary a great deal around this trend, due to:

Costs of extraction increasing at the margin

The influence on prices of recognition of the ‘peak oil’ condition

Internalisation of the external costs of releasing greenhouse gases and toxins to the atmosphere and water, via paying for rights and tax policies

Increasing compliance costs

Supply unreliability due to restrictive ownership of reserves, and global/regional conflicts affecting extraction and shipping

    • Supply of energy from carbohydrate technology (plants and micro-organisms) will expand but will not be available in sufficient volume when needed to substitute for hydrocarbons. This is due to insufficient long-term investment, which will come forth only as prices increase. As energy markets begin serious transition from hydrocarbons to carbohydrates, prices and supply reliability will be highly variable.The crops required for biofuels will compete strongly for use of agricultural land.
    • All options for growth of electricity generation in NZ have downsides concerning environmental effects, and/or cost levels, and/or ethical and safety concerns. Choices will be difficult and possibly divisive. Prices will increase substantially.
    • Given the risk of damage to transmission lines due to increasing frequency of severe weather events, the ‘main trunk’ electricity generation and distribution model will become increasingly unreliable. Local ‘distributed generation’ may be more attractive, despite higher costs.#top

2.More frequent & severe weather events

  • Prudent managers of community risk and business risk will soon accept that global warming is happening and that it is no longer sensible to shelter behind the scientific debate, which is effectively over. The main effects of global warming will be more extreme weather. It has probably already begun and occurrence is likely to accelerate noticeably within 10 years and rapidly thereafter. In New Zealand the outlook is for :

More severe and more frequent wind and rain, sometimes with flooding

Prolonged droughts

Generally warmer winters

More unseasonal frosts and hail

Variations of these effects across the regions of New Zealand

  • Weather events will increasingly be outside the ranges of historical data so that current engineering and safety standards will no longer be sufficient
    Weather impacts on New Zealand will incur substantial damage, cost and anxiety but these impacts will be less than in most other countries, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus New Zealand will be seen as a relatively safe haven.
    Global warming will have more gradual direct effects on agriculture and forestry.#top

3.Shifting lifestyles, work styles & family structures

  • Material wealth declines in relative importance to overall well-being as more people embrace the importance of harmonious communities and ecological sustainability
  • ‘Baby boomer’ demographics increases numbers of ‘active elderly’ and also results in more extended families living together
  • Some decline in preferences for metropolitan living due to congestion and pollution, and increasing desirability of regional cities and rural towns
  • Some groups in the community have strengthening preferences for more dense ‘urban village’ environments, and ‘life stylers’ increasingly favour ecologically sustainable land use
  • New Zealand becomes relatively more desirable – internationally – as a place to visit and live#top

 4.Increasing global disruption & anxiety

  • Growth as a dominant objective gives way to stability and security, and New Zealand GDP growth slows
  • Management of international trade and business becomes increasingly challenging due to

    -Security-based barriers and higher costs

    -Disruptive conflicts relating to oil, water, and insecurity

    -Reduced reliability of shipping

  • -Adverse effects of weather events on offshore market demand and supply capacity and reliability – but there may also be favourable competitive dynamics
  •  Countries and districts that credibly offer relatively more safety, security and harmony will achieve competitive advantage as ‘safe havens’ for tourism, permanent living, and some categories of investment#top

5.More difficult global & NZ economic conditions

  •  Growth as a dominant objective gives way to stability and security, and New Zealand GDP growth slows
  • Management of international trade and business becomes increasingly challenging due to:

Security-based barriers and higher costs

Disruptive conflicts relating to oil, water, and insecurity

Reduced reliability of shipping

Adverse effects of weather events on offshore market demand and supply capacity and reliability – but there may also be favourable competitive dynamics

Countries and districts that credibly offer relatively more safety, security and harmony will achieve competitive advantage as ‘safe havens’ for tourism, permanent living, and some categories of investment#top

 6.NZ infrastructural investment lags

  • Electricity supply is becoming an increasing problem
  • Roads are becoming increasingly congested
  • Telecommunications and the roll out of broadband has been slow#top

7.Technological opportunities for change

  • Highly evolved electronic connectivity and ‘ubiquitous computing’
    Distributed energy generation
  • Energy efficiency systems for transportation, heating, air conditioning and manufacturing
  • Sustainable materials and buildings
  • Medical science delivers extended life expectancy and ‘the active aged’ - but there is also more risk of major epidemics#top

8.Geological activity (Local Driver)

For local generation of electricity.#top

9.The unique role of Maori in Rotorua (Local Driver)#top

 

 






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